The Senate race in Pennsylvania has become even more competitive as Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey faces a tough challenge from Republican David McCormick. With early voting already underway, the race is now considered a critical battleground that could decide the Senate majority, which Democrats currently hold by a slim margin.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, recently shifted the Pennsylvania race from “leans Democrat” to a “toss-up,” indicating that the contest is now too close to call. This change puts Pennsylvania in the same competitive category as other key states like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
Polling in recent days has reflected the tightening nature of the race. According to an Atlas Intel survey, McCormick leads Casey 48.3% to 47.1%, although this remains within the poll’s margin of error. This represents a shift from September when Casey held a slight lead. A Trafalgar Group poll, another key survey, also showed McCormick narrowly ahead, with 47.2% to Casey’s 46.8%, further suggesting a close race.
Casey’s polling average still shows him with a small advantage, but the margin is less than 2 points, reflecting the competitive nature of the race. As Elizabeth Gregory, McCormick’s spokeswoman, stated, “It’s time for a change, and as a 7th-generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran, and PA job creator, Dave McCormick will bring new leadership and fresh ideas to the Senate.”
Casey, who is running for a fourth consecutive term, has responded to the tightening polls with an increase in fundraising appeals. His campaign has warned supporters that McCormick has a “real chance of winning and flipping Pennsylvania red,” and emphasized that the outcome of the race could determine the Senate majority.
Both campaigns are ramping up ad spending as Election Day nears. Democrats have reserved $18 million in ads for Casey, while McCormick’s camp has secured $29 million worth of airtime, according to data from AdImpact.
With the stakes so high, the race is likely to remain a nail-biter right up to the finish. Pennsylvania voters have already started casting their ballots, and the results here could be pivotal in determining control of the Senate.