Jordan Bardella is making waves in French politics as the president of the National Rally, a party formerly known as the National Front. Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the party in 1972. Since 2022, Bardella has led the party, which has transitioned from its far-right roots under Marine Le Pen, Jean-Marie’s daughter, to a more populist stance.
Thomas Corbett-Dillon, a former adviser to U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, noted, “Jordan Bardella, the right-wing 28-year-old without a college degree, could be the French prime minister in a few weeks. This is great news for the French people that have suffered relentless attacks on their culture by left-wing Macron and the millions of migrants he imported.”
Bardella, born to a family of Italian immigrants, excelled in school and attended the Sorbonne, although he left before graduating to pursue a political career. Raised primarily by his mother in a working-class Paris suburb, he has risen rapidly in the political landscape.
Recent European Union elections saw a shift towards populist right-wing parties, with the National Rally capturing 31.5% of the votes, making it the most popular French political bloc. This prompted President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap parliamentary election.
Corbett-Dillon remarked that Macron’s urgent election call was an attempt to catch the National Rally off-guard. He added, “The people across France have woken up and are sick of the left-wing policies.”
Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center, noted that Bardella and Marine Le Pen differ significantly in their approach compared to Jean-Marie Le Pen. “Jean-Marie’s demeanor was not fitting in with the French elite. When I see Marine and Jordan, they fit very well,” she said. Additionally, Bardella and Marine Le Pen do not engage in antisemitic rhetoric, distancing themselves from Jean-Marie’s controversial views.
Youth unemployment is a significant issue driving support for the National Rally, with the unemployment rate for 15-24 year-olds at 17.8% as of April. Ivo Pezzuto, a professor of global economics at ISM Business School, highlighted the skills gap, stating, “There are a lot of jobs but only for the people with the new skills. Those most likely to get jobs would include people with digital know-how.”
Despite the growing support, winning a parliamentary majority remains uncertain. Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group estimated a “non-negligible” 30% chance of the National Rally securing a majority. Even if they do, President Macron, who leans slightly left, is expected to clash with Bardella over policy goals.
Fiscal constraints pose another challenge, as France must adhere to EU limits on fiscal deficits. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, warned, “The new government will have a severe fiscal constraint.” He also noted a growing, albeit still small, risk of France exiting the EU, stating, “It’s a tail risk, but the tail has gotten a bit bigger.”
Investor concerns are already evident, with the Paris CAC index dropping 4% following Macron’s announcement of the snap vote. France’s financial situation remains strained, with a debt of 111% of GDP and a deficit of 5.5%, well above the EU’s 3% limit.