Polymarket, recognized as the leading prediction market globally, currently indicates a significant likelihood, at 94 percent, that 45th President Donald Trump will secure the Republican nomination for the upcoming presidential race as of this Monday afternoon.
The latest forecasts for the 2024 elections reveal Trump as the overwhelmingly favored candidate for the Republican nomination, with a staggering 94 percent chance in his favor. Former Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina trails significantly with only a four percent chance, and an additional three percent of predictions favor unspecified candidates.
Notably, Vivek Ramaswamy and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, both of whom have exited the GOP primary and endorsed Trump, received a mere one percent each.
The confidence in Trump’s nomination surpasses that for Joe Biden securing the Democratic nomination, which stands at 85 percent. California Governor Gavin Newsom and former First Lady Michelle Obama follow with six and five percent, respectively. Support for Rep. Dean Phillis (D-MN) is at three percent, while Kamala Harris has two percent in the latest projections.
Moreover, the current betting odds suggest an 82 percent chance of a Biden-Trump rematch in the general election. In this scenario, 55 percent believe Trump would emerge victorious, while 39 percent back Biden.